2020 Queensland state election

The 2020 Queensland state election is scheduled to be held on Saturday 31 October 2020 to elect the 57th Parliament of Queensland. All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of the unicameral parliament will be up for election. The two-term incumbent Labor government, currently led by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, will seek a third term against the Liberal National opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Deb Frecklington.

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ).

Date

The election will be for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has had fixed terms, with all elections following this election held every 4 years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Background

At the 2017 election, Labor won majority government with 48 of 93 seats. The Liberal Nationals won 39 seats. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party won three seats, One Nation won one seat, the Greens won one seat and Independent Sandy Bolton won the seat of Noosa.

Labor has won all but one state election since 1989, and has only been out of government for five years since then. It lost its majority in 1996, giving way to a Coalition minority government that was defeated in 1998. In 2012, it suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history, but regained power in 2015.

Polling

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LNP Green ON Other ALP LNP
30 August 2019 YouGov[1] 32% 37% 13% 13% 5% 49% 51%
13–14 February 2019 YouGov[2] 35% 35% 11% 8% 11% 52% 48%
7–8 November 2018 YouGov[3] 36% 34% 11% 10% 9% 53% 47%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov[4] 35% 37% 11% 10% 7% 51% 49%
9–10 May 2018 YouGov[5] 38% 35% 10% 12% 5% 53% 47%
7–8 Feb 2018 YouGov[6] 37% 36% 10% 10% 7% 52% 48%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition
25 Nov 2017 election 35.4% 33.7% 10.0% 13.7% 7.2% 51.2% 48.8%
21–24 Nov 2017 Newspoll[7] 36% 34% 10% 13% 7% 52.5% 47.5%
24 Nov 2017 Galaxy[8] 37% 35% 9% 12% 7% 52% 48%
20 Nov 2017 ReachTEL[9] 34% 30% 10% 17% 9% 51% 49%
Better premier/approval polling
Date Firm Better premier Palaszczuk Frecklington
Palaszczuk Frecklington Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
30 August 2019[10] YouGov 34% 29% 34% 45% 30% 30%
13–14 February 2019 YouGov[11] 47% 27% 48% 38% 31% 35%
7–8 November 2018 YouGov[12] 43% 26% 46% 37% 35% 29%
8–9 August 2018 YouGov[13] 41% 38% 31% 26%
9–10 May 2018 YouGov[14] 47% 27% 46% 38% 31% 28%
7–8 Feb 2018 YouGov[15] 42% 31%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition

References